Two Major Economic Crises in the Early Twenty-First Century and their Impact on Central Bank Independence

Two major economic crises in the early twenty-first century have had a serious impact on monetary policy and CB independence. Disruption in financial intermediation and associated deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and European financial crisis of 2010–2015 pushed central banks (CBs) in major currency areas towards adoption of unconventional monetary policy measures, including large-scale purchase of government bonds (quantitative easing). The same approach has been taken by CBs in response to the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 even if the characteristics of this crisis differ from the previous one. As a result of both crises, CBs have become major holders of government bonds and de facto – main creditors of governments. Against rapidly deteriorating fiscal balances, CBs have become hostages of fiscal policies, which compromises their independence. Risks to the CB independence also come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist political pressures.

The role of heritage sites and other influential factors in domestic tourism inflow to Australian states: a gravity model approach

Domestic tourism plays a crucial role in the Australian economy, generating revenue, creating employment opportunities, fostering cultural identity, and facilitating tourism growth and development. The remote regions of Australia are particularly reliant on domestic inbound tourism to stimulate their local economies. This study investigates the influence of heritage sites and various factors on domestic tourism inflows to eight states in the Australia between 1998-2021. The gravity method and random effect model are employed for the empirical analysis. The results indicate that the macro determinants, including population of origin state, gross state product per capita, infrastructural development, shared border between states, and the number of heritage sites, have significant and positive impact on domestic tourism inflow. Conversely, the consumer price index, distance, and pandemic outbreak have a negative influence on domestic tourism inflow. These findings hold important practical implications. Given Australia's geographical remoteness, promoting domestic tourism becomes imperative to boost the tourism industry and local economies. Therefore, it is recommended that authorities prioritize domestic tourism flows and invest in infrastructure, preserve heritage sites, stabilize prices, implement effective marketing strategies, and respond swiftly to public emergencies such as the Covid-19 pandemic.

ANALYZING A MACROPRUDENTIAL INSTRUMENT DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC USING BORDER COLLISION BIFURCATION

Bank Indonesia, el banco central de Indonesia, ha realizado ajustes en un instrumento de política macroprudencial llamado índice de intermediación macroprudencial (IIM) para impulsar el crecimiento de los préstamos en el contexto de la recuperación económica nacional debido a la pandemia de COVID-19. En este artículo, se desarrolla un modelo dinámico de préstamo bancario con comportamiento procíclico, y se equipa con el instrumento predecesor del IIM denominado requerimiento de reserva basado en la relación préstamo-depósito (RR-RPD). Examinamos los efectos de los parámetros RR-RPD en la dinámica del préstamo utilizando el análisis de bifurcación de colisión de fronteras para determinar los valores umbral de los parámetros RR-RPD para que se pueda mantener la estabilidad del equilibrio del préstamo. Este modelo se aplica a los datos mensuales de los bancos comerciales de Indonesia antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19 para evaluar la región de estabilidad de los parámetros del instrumento.Alternate :Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, has made adjustment settings in a macroprudential policy instrument called macroprudential intermediation ratio (MIR) to boost loan growth in the context of national economic recovery due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, a dynamic model of bank loan with procyclicality behavior is developed, and it is equipped with the predecessor of the MIR instrument called loan-to-deposit ratio based reserve requirement (LDR-RR). We examine the effects of LDR-RR parameters on the dynamics of loan using the border collision bifurcation analysis to determine the threshold values of the LDR-RR parameters so that the stability of loan equilibrium can be maintained. This model is applied to monthly data of Indonesian commercial banks before and during the COVID-19 pandemic to assess the stability region of the instrument parameters.

Economic Role of Government Budget Revision in the Presence of COVID-19

Fiscal policies are one of the most important instruments of government to guide the progress of the country's economic development. They find significant use in cases where the economy is experiencing a period of recession, such as the current one caused by COVID-19. This study aims to assess the multiplier effects that budget revision has on the economy for the case of Albania, and more specifically by referring to the initial and revised budget scenario for the year 2020 which is characterized by significant changes caused by the presence of COVID-19. Referring to the multipliers from the input–output tables (IOT) the total effect that the state budget brings to the economy for a certain year is derived. From this paper, it appears that the budget restructuring that takes place during the year does not take into account the multiplier effect in the economy, but is mostly done for specific purposes related to certain government functions. In this context, it is very important that various options during budget revision are evaluated, concluding with the option that has the highest returns for the economy.

Shadow Banks and the Collateral Multiplier.

With an emphasis on contributing to macroeconomic pedagogy, we examine the collateral multiplier by comparing it to the traditional money multiplier in a simplified framework of traditional banking and shadow banking in which government bonds are the core assets. While the money multiplier is a measure of the ability of the banking system to intermediate sovereign debt by creating deposits, the collateral multiplier is a measure of the shadow banking system's ability to intermediate sovereign debt by creating shadow money. It also measures the degree of reuse of sovereign debt as collateral. In this setup, the collateral multiplier is defined as the ratio between dealer banks' matched book repo activity relative to their trading book. Using the New York Fed's Primary Dealer Statistics data, we empirically estimate the collateral multiplier for US Treasury repo collateral. Our model and empirical results shed light on the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy channeled through shadow banks and on the US Treasuries market turmoil induced by COVID-19 in March 2020.

A Dual Forward–Backward Algorithm to Solve Convex Model Predictive Control for Obstacle Avoidance in a Logistics Scenario

In recent years, the logistics sector expanded significantly, leading to the birth of smart warehouses. In this context, a key role is represented by autonomous mobile robots, whose main challenge is to find collision-free paths in their working environment in real-time. Model Predictive Control Algorithms combined with global path planners, such as the A* algorithm, show great potential in providing efficient navigation for collision avoidance problems. This paper proposes a Dual Forward–Backward Algorithm to find the solution to a Model Predictive Control problem in which the task of driving a mobile robotic platform into a bi-dimensional semi-structured environment is formulated in a convex optimisation framework.

Using an influenza surveillance system to estimate the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Beijing, China, weeks 2 to 6 2023.

With COVID-19 public health control measures downgraded in China in January 2023, reported COVID-19 case numbers may underestimate the true numbers after the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave. Using a multiplier model based on our influenza surveillance system, we estimated that the overall incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections was 392/100,000 population in Beijing during the 5 weeks following policy adjustment. No notable change occurred after the Spring Festival in early February. The multiplier model provides an opportunity for assessing the actual COVID-19 situation.

Teaching the COVID-19 lockdown using the Keynesian Cross

I present a framework to teach the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 using the Keynesian Cross. I show that the rest of the economy suffers from a decline in demand once one sector of the economy is shut down and that the government spending and tax multipliers are smaller than usual. Fully insuring workers in the sector that is shut down cannot prevent a recession, but for the same aggregate transfers, such targeted income transfers do more to restore aggregate output than unconditional transfers. An extension to the (Formula presented.) curve shows that a lockdown results in deflation. These insights can be taught in an introductory or intermediate macroeconomics course. © 2022 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Catalysing regional integration in Africa: The role of infrastructure

Now, more than ever, infrastructure integration in Africa has become critical to recalibrating Africa's growth strategy toward increased intraregional trade, especially in an era of global isolationism, protectionism and supply chain disruptions from COVID and the war in Ukraine. This paper investigates the extent to which infrastructure development and integration can act as a catalyst for trade, innovation and income improvements in Africa. Using panel data analysis, we show that the infrastructure sector with the strongest multiplier effect on economic activity is the information and communication technology (ICT) sector, followed by the transport sector, the electricity sector and, last, the water sector. This ranking of the catalytic role of infrastructure sectors should guide policy prioritisation on infrastructure investments to accelerate growth and unlock the potential of the AfCFTA. Benchmarking exercises on infrastructures' catalytic role in the regional economic communities (RECs) show that infrastructure has had the strongest impact on economic outcomes in the East African Community bloc, making the EAC a type of flying‐geese RECs for other regions to emulate.

A Statistical Investigation into the COVID-19 Outbreak Spread.

Objective: Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) outbreaks have been reported in a range of climates worldwide, including Bangladesh. There is less evidence of a link between the COVID-19 pandemic and climatic variables. This research article's purpose is to examine the relationship between COVID-19 outbreaks and climatic factors in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Methods: The daily time series COVID-19 data used in this study span from May 1, 2020, to April 14, 2021, for the study area, Dhaka, Bangladesh. The Climatic factors included in this study were average temperature, particulate matter ( P M 2 . 5 ), humidity, carbon emissions, and wind speed within the same timeframe and location. The strength and direction of the relationship between meteorological factors and COVID-19 positive cases are examined using the Spearman correlation. This study examines the asymmetric effect of climatic factors on the COVID-19 pandemic in Dhaka, Bangladesh, using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. Results: COVID-19 widespread has a substantial positive association with wind speed (r = .781), temperature (r = .599), and carbon emissions (r = .309), whereas P M 2 . 5 (r = -.178) has a negative relationship at the 1% level of significance. Furthermore, with a 1% change in temperature, the incidence of COVID-19 increased by 1.23% in the short run and 1.53% in the long run, with the remaining variables remaining constant. Similarly, in the short-term, humidity was not significantly related to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in the long term, it increased 1.13% because of a 1% change in humidity. The changes in PM2.5 level and wind speed are significantly associated with COVID-19 new cases after adjusting population density and the human development index.

Modelling Regional Sustainable Development in Ukrainian Crisis and War

The article investigates the impact of force majeure crisis factors that appeared in the Ukrainian economy as a result of the global recession, the events of 2014-2021 (annexation of Crimea, temporary occupation of part of the industrial territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, military operations in Donbas, during the fight against pandemic (COVID-19), war in 2022 on the stable development of regions. Based on the analysis of official indicators of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, it was proved that the said factors create additional multiplier and accel-eration effects that adversely affect the dynamics of the gross regional product in the crisis conditions. It has been determined that the result of these effects is the transformation of crisis signals from a proactive to an active phase. The construction of a heat map of GRP correlation indicators made it possible to determine the existence of a dis-balance between the economic and social development of the regions. Building a model of linear regression, allowed us to draw conclusions about the existing disbalance of GRP regions during the crisis and war. © 2023, Politechnika Lubelska. All rights reserved.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women entrepreneurs in Pakistan

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women entrepreneurs in Pakistan's informal sector based on perceived sales increase/decrease and satisfaction with sales. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had profound economic effects, putting women entrepreneurs at considerable risk of losing income and sales growth as a result. Women reporting sales increases and sales satisfaction tended to be older, have lower education levels, have larger households, be married, own a home, have a supportive family and report an average family financial position. The impact of family support on sales variables depended on the size of the household. The type of business was also affected during the pandemic. This study is unique because it focuses on the impact of the pandemic at the household level where women have taken on increased responsibilities for work and family beyond those in 'normal' times. The household level of analysis is critical for understanding the dynamics of women's informal, home-based businesses in the family context. Findings suggest the resilience, agility and multiplier effects of women entrepreneurs in the face of cultural, economic, social and institutional constraints encountered during the pandemic.

[The experience of Japan: the application of the intersectoral balance methodology to control health care costs as a factor of mobilization readiness of health care to COVID-19 pandemic].

One of possible reasons for success of Japan in confronting the COVID-19 pandemic (low mortality rates, refusal of hard lock-downs and relatively low fall in economy) is seen in record high (3-4 times higher than in most other developed countries) provision of hospital beds. Its financing was supported during first 2 decades of the XXI century by the policy of relative to GDP advanced growth of public health public expenditures based on assessment of multiplier impact of these expenditures on demand, production and employment in other sectors of the economy using the intersectoral balance method based on "input-output" tables.Purpose of the study is to analyze Japan's economic policy in managing budgetary health care costs.The comprehensive statistical, comparative and retrospective analysis of available data was applied.The study results permit to suggest that high provision of the Japan population with hospital care resources and low mortality rates in 2022 prior to development of vaccines and effective treatment schemes for COVID-19 can be explained, among other things, by long-term policy of managing health care costs using assessment of their effect on production growth, demand and employment in other economy sectors using intersectoral balance method based on regular compilation of "input-output" tables.The data obtained permits to characterize as promising approach of the Japanese government to management of health care costs using assessment of their effect on production growth, demand and employment in other sectors of the economy using intersectoral balance method based on the regular compilation of "input-output" tables. This approach permitted to increase up to 1.5 times health care costs during 2005-2018 in situation of chronic stagnation of the national economy and thus to avoid world-wide trend towards reduction of hospital bed stock and after the start of pandemic severe shortage of hospital beds. The positive experience of Japan is confirmed by encouraging results of 2 pilot projects in the EU countries on applying the intersectoral balance method to assess the multiplier effect of health care costs in 2017-2018. It is considered that using the experience of Japan in managing budgetary health care expenditures through intersectoral balance method is challenging.

Emergency Distribution Network Design & Analysis for Consecrated COVID 19 Hospital Zone

A power distribution network is always a key topic in a grid system because of more complexity. Rapidly or sudden load increasing to a particular one or two feeders can arise uncertainty and unbalance conditions in the system. Voltage fluctuations, Deviations, THD (total harmonic distortion), Reactive power imbalances can seriously unstable the grid for load increasing situations. In recent days due to COVID 19 condition, dedicated hospitals are connected to the distribution network. Because of its urgency and usefulness, a new type of distribution network called loop plus parallel has been presented in this paper. Finally, the simulation studies show better performance when comparing the traditional types of networks. New distribution network shows promising values in THD, Voltage deviation and also for reactive power imbalance. © 2022 Authors. All rights reserved.

The macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 in Mozambique: A social accounting matrix approach.

This study assesses the economic costs of COVID-19 and the state of emergency implemented by the Government of Mozambique. We use a social accounting matrix multiplier analysis to estimate the effects of the pandemic on the economy. Our simulations suggest that the Mozambican economy lost 3.6 percentage points of GDP growth in 2020 and that employment was 1.9 percentage points down. These losses were primarily driven by export shocks, the most heavily affected sectors being trade and accommodation and mining. Mozambique faces a critical challenge of how to promote economic diversification and reduce vulnerability to foreign shocks.

Lost in consolidation? Declining public investment, multiplier effects and alternatives to the path of fiscal consolidation in Portugal

This paper deals with one of the most pressing concerns that Eurozone periphery economies will face in the near future: how to achieve a sustained recovery from the COVID-19 crisis while dealing with growing public debt-to-GDP ratios. The paper assesses the macroeconomic relationship between public spending, economic growth and debt sustainability. We use a TSLS method to perform the econometric estimation of the public spending multiplier for a panel of 11 Eurozone economies over the 1995-2019 period. We find evidence that the multiplier is positive and close to 1,8, suggesting that the benefits of promoting public investment exceed its initial financing cost. As a result, we conclude that debt sustainability is not only compatible with, but in fact improved by a more expansive fiscal policy and present an alternative policy path for the Portuguese economy in the 2021-2025 period based on this conclusion.

Fiscal multipliers in the COVID19 recession.

In response to the record-breaking COVID19 recession, many governments have adopted unprecedented fiscal stimuli. While countercyclical fiscal policy is effective in fighting conventional recessions, little is known about the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the current environment with widespread shelter-in-place ("lockdown") policies and the associated considerable limits on economic activity. Using detailed regional variation in economic conditions, lockdown policies, and U.S. government spending, we document that the effects of government spending were stronger during the peak of the pandemic recession, but only in cities that were not subject to strong stay-at-home orders. We examine mechanisms that can account for our evidence and place our findings in the context of other recent evidence from microdata.

Applying the Investment Multiplier to Identify Key Points of Economic Growth

The crisis phenomena irregularity due to the COVID-19 pandemic requires new, to a certain extent, non-routine tools for their settlement, namely the action effect enhancers of the state and private investors to develop the economy in conditions of shrinking volumes of available financial resources. The paper proposes the Investment Multiplier (IM) as such a tool. The author's model was generated based on a detailed description of developing multiplier processes to analyze its action. The study aims to estimate the IM values of the economies of Kurgan, Sverdlovsk, and Chelyabinsk, the most industrially developed Russian regions, and identify the main points of their economic growth. The key research method was regression analysis. The present study establishes interconnectivity between marginal propensity and savings, marginal propensity and imports, marginal tax rate, and investment accelerator, and their influence on the regional multiplier. From a position of investment multiplier, the authors try to narrow the research gap in how investment policies influence the economic growth of the Russian regions. The study results determine IM values for the analyzed regions, identifying their differences and reasons. The key points of economic growth in these regions were identified. The scientific novelty involves applying changes in regional multiplier processes' dynamics to determine the key development points. The practical significance is that the IM value is an analytical tool that will identify existing key points of regional economic development and, by managing the IM value, create new points for investments with a large-scale multiplier effect, thus developing the regional economy. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee ESJ, Italy. Commons Attribution (CC-BY) license (https:.

Copulas and Portfolios in the Electric Vehicle Sector

How can investors unlock the returns on the electric vehicle industry? Available investment choices range from individual stocks to exchange traded funds. We select six representative assets and characterize the time-varying joint distribution of their returns by copula-GARCH models. They facilitate portfolio optimization targeted at a chosen combination of risk and reward. With daily data from 2012 to 2020, we illustrate the models’ applicability by building a minimum expected shortfall portfolio and comparing its performance to that of an equally weighted benchmark. Our results should be of interest to investors and risk managers seeking or facing exposure to the electric vehicle sector.

Kripto Para Birimlerinin Volatilite Yapılarının Karşılaştırmalı Analizi*

2008 küresel finans krizi ile birlikte ortaya çıkan kripto para birimi, geleneksel para sisteminin yerini almak üzere geliştirilen alternatif bir deǧişim aracı olmuştur. Kripto para birimleri hızlı ve güvenli işlem yapabilmesi, aracı kurumları ortadan kaldırması ve düşük maliyetli olmasından dolayı giderek popüler hale gelmiştir. Ancak kripto para piyasasındaki sert dalgalanmalardan ötürü oluşan yüksek risk-getiri oranı nedeniyle literatürde kripto paraların getirilerinin yanında risklerinin de dikkate alınmasının önemi vurgulanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada pozitif ve negatif şokların kripto para birimlerinin getiri oranlarının volatilitesi üzerindeki etkilerinin araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu doǧrultuda piyasa deǧeri yüksek olan BTC, ETH, XRP, ADA, LTC, BCH, XLM, LINK, TRX ve DOGE kripto para birimleri seçilerek getiri serileri oluşturulmuştur. Bu getiri serilerinin volatiliteleri simetrik ve asimetrik koşullu deǧişen varyans modelleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Veri seti dönemi her bir kripto para birimi için deǧişmekle birlikte en geniş veri seti 01.01.2017-16.01.2021 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular BTC, ADA, LINK getiri serilerinde meydana gelen negatif şokların pozitif şoklara göre volatilite üzerinde daha çok etkisi olduǧunu göstermiştir. Diǧer taraftan ETH, XRP, LTC, BCH, XLM, TRX, DOGE getiri serilerinde ise pozitif şokların volatilite üzerinde daha büyük bir etkiye sahip olduǧu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Sonuç olarak bu çalışmada kullanılan veriler için getiri serilerinin volatilitelerinin modellenmesinde asimetrik koşullu deǧişen varyans modellerinin, simetrik koşullu deǧişen varyans modellerine göre daha anlamlı sonuçlar verdiǧini göstermiştir.Alternate :Cryptocurrency emerged as an alternative medium of exchange developed after the 2008 global financial crisis to replace the traditional money system. Cryptocurrencies have become increasingly popular because of their fast and secure transactions, elimination of intermediaries, and low cost. However, due to the high risk-return ratio arising from sharp fluctuations in the cryptomoney market, studies have emphasized that the risks of cryptocurrencies should be considered in addition to their returns. This study investigates the effects of positive and negative shocks on the volatility of the rates of return on cryptocurrencies. In this direction, a return series was created by choosing BTC, ETH, XRP, ADA, LTC, BCH, XLM, LINK, TRX, and DOGE cryptocurrencies with high market values. The volatility of these return series was analyzed using symmetric and asymmetric conditional heteroskedasticity models. Although the data set period varies for each cryptocurrency, the largest dataset covers the period from January 1, 2017, to January 16, 2021. The findings show that negative shocks in BTC, ADA, and LINK return series have more effect on volatility than positive shocks. Alternatively, it was concluded that positive shocks have a greater effect on volatility in ETH, XRP, LTC, BCH, XLM, TRX, DOGE return series. Therefore, for the data used in this study, it has been shown that the asymmetric conditional heteroskedasticity models give more meaningful results than the symmetric conditional heteroskedasticity models in modeling the volatility of the return series.